Some say Week 13, some say Week 14. However you call it, here are the NFL Power Rankings for this week.
Week 2009.13
|
| ## |
L# |
Team |
Record |
Div |
AVG |
LAV |
Δ |
σ |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| 01 |
01 |
NOS |
12-00-00 |
NFC S |
1.23 |
1.15 |
0.08 |
0.44 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
| 02 |
02 |
IND |
12-00-00 |
AFC S |
1.92 |
1.92 |
0.00 |
0.76 |
02 |
02 |
01 |
04 |
02 |
01 |
02 |
02 |
02 |
01 |
02 |
02 |
02 |
| 03 |
03 |
MIN |
10-02-00 |
NFC N |
3.69 |
3.15 |
0.54 |
1.11 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
06 |
03 |
04 |
03 |
06 |
04 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
04 |
| 04 |
05 |
SDC |
09-03-00 |
AFC W |
4.69 |
5.15 |
0.46 |
2.59 |
04 |
04 |
05 |
13 |
04 |
05 |
05 |
03 |
03 |
04 |
04 |
04 |
03 |
| 05 |
06 |
CIN |
09-03-00 |
AFC N |
6.15 |
6.38 |
0.23 |
3.16 |
05 |
05 |
04 |
15 |
05 |
10 |
04 |
04 |
05 |
05 |
05 |
08 |
05 |
| 06 |
08 |
ARI |
08-04-00 |
NFC W |
6.38 |
9.77 |
3.38 |
2.06 |
06 |
09 |
02 |
07 |
06 |
07 |
06 |
05 |
06 |
06 |
06 |
11 |
06 |
| 07 |
10 |
PHI |
08-04-00 |
NFC E |
7.54 |
10.08 |
2.54 |
2.22 |
08 |
10 |
06 |
02 |
07 |
08 |
11 |
08 |
10 |
07 |
07 |
07 |
07 |
| 08 |
11 |
GBP |
08-04-00 |
NFC N |
7.77 |
10.46 |
2.69 |
2.13 |
07 |
08 |
10 |
03 |
08 |
12 |
07 |
07 |
07 |
09 |
09 |
06 |
08 |
| 09 |
12 |
DEN |
08-04-00 |
AFC W |
8.46 |
10.62 |
2.15 |
1.27 |
09 |
06 |
09 |
10 |
09 |
06 |
08 |
09 |
08 |
08 |
10 |
09 |
09 |
| 10 |
04 |
NEP |
07-05-00 |
AFC E |
9.15 |
5.08 |
4.08 |
2.85 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
05 |
11 |
03 |
09 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
05 |
10 |
| 11 |
07 |
DAL |
08-04-00 |
NFC E |
9.62 |
7.31 |
2.31 |
1.56 |
10 |
07 |
07 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
09 |
11 |
08 |
10 |
11 |
| 12 |
14 |
NYG |
07-05-00 |
NFC E |
11.92 |
14.62 |
2.69 |
0.64 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
| 13 |
09 |
BAL |
06-06-00 |
AFC N |
13.23 |
10.08 |
3.15 |
2.35 |
16 |
14 |
16 |
08 |
15 |
09 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
| 14 |
13 |
PIT |
06-06-00 |
AFC N |
14.85 |
11.62 |
3.23 |
1.99 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
19 |
15 |
15 |
| 15 |
19 |
JAC |
07-05-00 |
AFC S |
15.38 |
18.54 |
3.15 |
2.66 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
19 |
13 |
21 |
17 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
18 |
14 |
| 16 |
20 |
MIA |
06-06-00 |
AFC E |
15.46 |
18.77 |
3.31 |
1.13 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
| 17 |
21 |
NYJ |
06-06-00 |
AFC E |
17.23 |
19.15 |
1.92 |
1.83 |
19 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
19 |
14 |
20 |
18 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
14 |
18 |
| 18 |
15 |
ATL |
06-06-00 |
NFC S |
18.38 |
15.77 |
2.62 |
1.71 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
| 19 |
16 |
TEN |
05-07-00 |
AFC S |
18.54 |
16.00 |
2.54 |
1.94 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
23 |
18 |
20 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
18 |
21 |
17 |
| 20 |
17 |
HOU |
05-07-00 |
AFC S |
19.62 |
17.77 |
1.85 |
2.66 |
22 |
20 |
20 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
19 |
24 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
22 |
| 21 |
18 |
SFO |
05-07-00 |
NFC W |
20.46 |
18.23 |
2.23 |
1.66 |
23 |
18 |
22 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
20 |
| 22 |
25 |
SEA |
05-07-00 |
NFC W |
22.38 |
24.31 |
1.92 |
1.33 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
22 |
23 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
| 23 |
22 |
CAR |
05-07-00 |
NFC S |
22.54 |
22.69 |
0.15 |
1.13 |
20 |
22 |
24 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
| 24 |
24 |
CHI |
05-07-00 |
NFC N |
23.92 |
24.15 |
0.23 |
0.95 |
24 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
24 |
| 25 |
23 |
BUF |
04-08-00 |
AFC E |
25.54 |
23.08 |
2.46 |
1.05 |
26 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
25 |
27 |
| 26 |
28 |
OAK |
04-08-00 |
AFC W |
25.69 |
27.62 |
1.92 |
2.21 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
30 |
27 |
26 |
27 |
20 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
26 |
| 27 |
26 |
WAS |
03-09-00 |
NFC E |
26.08 |
25.92 |
0.15 |
1.98 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
20 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
25 |
| 28 |
27 |
KCC |
03-09-00 |
AFC W |
28.00 |
27.08 |
0.92 |
0.41 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
29 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
27 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
| 29 |
30 |
DET |
02-10-00 |
NFC N |
29.77 |
29.92 |
0.15 |
1.01 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
32 |
29 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
| 30 |
29 |
TBB |
01-11-00 |
NFC S |
29.85 |
29.54 |
0.31 |
1.14 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
27 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
29 |
31 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
29 |
| 31 |
31 |
STL |
01-11-00 |
NFC W |
30.38 |
30.54 |
0.15 |
1.19 |
31 |
30 |
30 |
28 |
31 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
31 |
| 32 |
32 |
CLE |
01-11-00 |
AFC N |
31.69 |
31.54 |
0.15 |
0.63 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
Key
## – Rank this week; L# – Rank last week; AVG – this week’s average; LAV – last week’s average; Δ – Difference in averages; σ – Standard deviation
Sporting News maintains the lead with an overall accuracy of 69%. ProFootballTalk’s Rankings continues it’s lengthy streak as our overall least accurate source at 63%. Sagarin had the highest accuracy in Week 12 games only at 81%. Six sources had the worst accuracy in Week 12 games only with 63% accuracy: ESPN, ESPN SportsNation, ProFootballTalk, USAToday, Sports Illustrated, and NFL.com’s Experts.
*** NOTE ***
The following are considered to be formulaic (computer, statistical, etc — i.e. no human component): WI (Whatifsports.com), FO (FootballOutsiders), SA (Jeff Sagarin’s Computer Ratings), and CV (Covers.com).
Please remember that for our purposes, our picks are determined strictly by the power rankings. If Team A is playing Team B and if Team A is ranked 13 and Team B is ranked 14, we presume that Team A is the pick over Team B, even if Team B is the home team. The more powerful team should always win. Period.
| Source Accuracy – Through 2009.12 |
| TOTAL |
NFLPR |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| Correct |
112 |
114 |
120 |
116 |
115 |
114 |
114 |
117 |
110 |
122 |
115 |
118 |
119 |
115 |
| Incorrect |
64 |
62 |
56 |
60 |
61 |
62 |
62 |
59 |
66 |
54 |
61 |
58 |
57 |
61 |
| Percent |
64% |
65% |
68% |
66% |
65% |
65% |
65% |
66% |
63% |
69% |
65% |
67% |
68% |
65% |
| CUMULATIVE |
NFLPR |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| Thru Wk 01 |
81% |
75% |
81% |
81% |
81% |
94% |
81% |
88% |
81% |
75% |
88% |
88% |
81% |
81% |
| Thru Wk 02 |
69% |
66% |
69% |
72% |
69% |
78% |
56% |
78% |
63% |
72% |
72% |
78% |
69% |
72% |
| Thru Wk 03 |
71% |
69% |
71% |
73% |
69% |
77% |
65% |
77% |
69% |
73% |
73% |
77% |
71% |
73% |
| Thru Wk 04 |
71% |
69% |
69% |
73% |
73% |
76% |
68% |
77% |
69% |
76% |
71% |
76% |
71% |
73% |
| Thru Wk 05 |
67% |
67% |
67% |
71% |
70% |
70% |
67% |
75% |
66% |
74% |
70% |
72% |
72% |
68% |
| Thru Wk 06 |
66% |
67% |
67% |
70% |
68% |
69% |
67% |
73% |
63% |
72% |
69% |
72% |
71% |
68% |
| Thru Wk 07 |
65% |
66% |
65% |
69% |
68% |
68% |
67% |
72% |
63% |
71% |
68% |
71% |
71% |
66% |
| Thru Wk 08 |
64% |
65% |
66% |
68% |
68% |
66% |
66% |
70% |
62% |
69% |
66% |
70% |
69% |
65% |
| Thru Wk 09 |
64% |
65% |
67% |
67% |
67% |
66% |
65% |
68% |
62% |
70% |
67% |
69% |
69% |
65% |
| Thru Wk 10 |
62% |
64% |
66% |
65% |
65% |
63% |
63% |
66% |
60% |
68% |
65% |
67% |
67% |
64% |
| Thru Wk 11 |
63% |
65% |
68% |
66% |
65% |
65% |
63% |
66% |
63% |
69% |
66% |
68% |
67% |
66% |
| Thru Wk 12 |
64% |
65% |
68% |
66% |
65% |
65% |
65% |
66% |
63% |
69% |
65% |
67% |
68% |
65% |
| WEEKLY |
NFLPR |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| Only Wk 01 |
81% |
75% |
81% |
81% |
81% |
94% |
81% |
88% |
81% |
75% |
88% |
88% |
81% |
81% |
| Only Wk 02 |
56% |
56% |
56% |
63% |
56% |
63% |
31% |
69% |
44% |
69% |
56% |
69% |
56% |
63% |
| Only Wk 03 |
75% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
69% |
75% |
81% |
75% |
81% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
| Only Wk 04 |
71% |
71% |
64% |
71% |
86% |
71% |
79% |
79% |
71% |
86% |
64% |
71% |
71% |
71% |
| Only Wk 05 |
50% |
57% |
57% |
64% |
57% |
43% |
64% |
64% |
50% |
64% |
64% |
57% |
79% |
50% |
| Only Wk 06 |
57% |
64% |
64% |
64% |
57% |
64% |
64% |
64% |
50% |
64% |
64% |
71% |
64% |
64% |
| Only Wk 07 |
62% |
62% |
54% |
62% |
69% |
62% |
69% |
62% |
62% |
62% |
62% |
62% |
69% |
54% |
| Only Wk 08 |
54% |
54% |
69% |
62% |
69% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
62% |
54% |
54% |
| Only Wk 09 |
62% |
69% |
85% |
62% |
54% |
62% |
62% |
54% |
62% |
77% |
69% |
62% |
69% |
69% |
| Only Wk 10 |
47% |
53% |
53% |
47% |
47% |
40% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
53% |
47% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Only Wk 11 |
75% |
75% |
81% |
69% |
69% |
81% |
63% |
69% |
81% |
81% |
75% |
69% |
63% |
81% |
| Only Wk 12 |
69% |
63% |
75% |
69% |
69% |
63% |
81% |
69% |
63% |
69% |
63% |
63% |
75% |
63% |
| Week 2009.13 |
| Picks |
Visitor |
Home |
Picks |
HFA |
Quality |
| 05 |
BAL |
GBP |
08 |
0.38 |
10.65 |
| 13 |
MIN |
ARI |
00 |
6.62 |
13.08 |
| 13 |
DAL |
NYG |
00 |
7.31 |
18.27 |
| 13 |
PHI |
ATL |
00 |
5.69 |
18.62 |
| 06 |
HOU |
JAC |
07 |
0.77 |
18.92 |
| 00 |
TEN |
IND |
13 |
-14.08 |
23.04 |
| 12 |
NYJ |
BUF |
01 |
3.92 |
25.04 |
| 13 |
NEP |
MIA |
00 |
13.69 |
25.62 |
| 13 |
SFO |
SEA |
00 |
6.08 |
27.35 |
| 00 |
TBB |
CAR |
13 |
-6.85 |
32.96 |
| 00 |
STL |
CHI |
13 |
-6.38 |
33.73 |
| 13 |
DEN |
KCC |
00 |
16.46 |
35.31 |
| 00 |
OAK |
PIT |
13 |
-16.00 |
35.62 |
| 13 |
NOS |
WAS |
00 |
24.77 |
38.31 |
| 00 |
DET |
CIN |
13 |
-23.54 |
41.69 |
| 13 |
SDC |
CLE |
00 |
26.38 |
44.73 |
Sorry for the backlog. Working to get caught up.
New Division Rankings from the Week 12 Power Rankings.
Minimal changes from last week. AFC South’s hold on the overall top division spot strengthened just a bit. Everyone else stayed about the same.
Overall, the AFC regained a bit of what it lost to the NFC last week.
I’m curious to see if the rankings begin to solidify over the remainder of the season. At this point, the various sources have enough data, whether that be visual or statistical, to have a pretty good idea of where all the different teams stand. There are few surprises left in store this season. Unless some teams get hot over the final set of games, I would imagine we’ll begin to see less volatility in the rankings. It will be interesting to see if this hypothesis holds true.
| Division Breakdown |
|
Wk 00 |
Wk 01 |
Wk 02 |
Wk 03 |
Wk 04 |
Wk 05 |
Wk 06 |
Wk 07 |
Wk 08 |
Wk 09 |
Wk 10 |
Wk 11 |
Wk 12 |
| AFC S |
13.83 |
15.55 |
16.88 |
16.57 |
15.94 |
17.70 |
17.96 |
17.04 |
16.19 |
15.10 |
13.44 |
13.30 |
13.56 |
| NFC E |
10.10 |
9.82 |
11.61 |
12.38 |
12.98 |
12.52 |
15.27 |
15.17 |
14.73 |
14.83 |
15.69 |
13.83 |
14.48 |
| AFC N |
15.85 |
15.93 |
15.55 |
14.93 |
15.13 |
13.98 |
14.77 |
13.63 |
13.10 |
13.58 |
12.90 |
15.08 |
14.90 |
| AFC E |
14.88 |
14.79 |
14.14 |
14.54 |
14.56 |
16.55 |
15.98 |
15.02 |
15.08 |
15.13 |
16.92 |
16.72 |
16.52 |
| NFC N |
17.21 |
16.63 |
17.07 |
14.71 |
14.54 |
13.75 |
13.94 |
15.35 |
15.90 |
17.73 |
17.54 |
16.84 |
16.92 |
| NFC S |
15.69 |
17.30 |
16.48 |
17.75 |
17.62 |
16.05 |
15.65 |
17.29 |
16.75 |
15.75 |
16.37 |
17.33 |
17.29 |
| AFC W |
22.13 |
21.21 |
20.66 |
19.98 |
20.38 |
20.20 |
18.38 |
18.46 |
18.71 |
18.58 |
18.67 |
17.98 |
17.62 |
| NFC W |
22.27 |
20.73 |
19.55 |
21.14 |
20.85 |
21.25 |
20.04 |
20.04 |
21.54 |
21.31 |
20.46 |
20.92 |
20.71 |
| AFC AVG |
16.67 |
16.87 |
16.81 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
17.11 |
16.77 |
16.04 |
15.77 |
15.60 |
15.49 |
15.77 |
15.65 |
| NFC AVG |
16.32 |
16.12 |
16.18 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
15.89 |
16.23 |
16.96 |
17.23 |
17.40 |
17.51 |
17.23 |
17.35 |
Some say Week 13, some say Week 12. However you call it, here are the NFL Power Rankings for this week.
Week 2009.12
|
| ## |
L# |
Team |
Record |
Div |
AVG |
LAV |
Δ |
σ |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| 01 |
01 |
NOS |
11-00-00 |
NFC S |
1.15 |
1.44 |
0.28 |
0.38 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
| 02 |
02 |
IND |
11-00-00 |
AFC S |
1.92 |
1.69 |
0.24 |
0.49 |
02 |
02 |
01 |
02 |
02 |
01 |
02 |
03 |
02 |
02 |
02 |
02 |
02 |
| 03 |
03 |
MIN |
10-01-00 |
NFC N |
3.15 |
3.31 |
0.16 |
0.69 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
05 |
03 |
04 |
03 |
02 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
| 04 |
04 |
NEP |
07-04-00 |
AFC E |
5.08 |
3.63 |
1.45 |
1.26 |
06 |
05 |
07 |
03 |
06 |
03 |
06 |
06 |
05 |
04 |
06 |
04 |
05 |
| 05 |
05 |
SDC |
08-03-00 |
AFC W |
5.15 |
5.75 |
0.60 |
2.44 |
04 |
04 |
06 |
13 |
04 |
05 |
05 |
04 |
04 |
05 |
04 |
05 |
04 |
| 06 |
06 |
CIN |
08-03-00 |
AFC N |
6.38 |
6.94 |
0.55 |
2.75 |
05 |
07 |
05 |
15 |
05 |
07 |
04 |
05 |
07 |
06 |
05 |
06 |
06 |
| 07 |
08 |
DAL |
08-03-00 |
NFC E |
7.31 |
8.75 |
1.44 |
1.44 |
07 |
08 |
04 |
08 |
07 |
09 |
10 |
07 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
07 |
07 |
| 08 |
07 |
ARI |
07-04-00 |
NFC W |
9.77 |
7.25 |
2.52 |
1.69 |
08 |
13 |
11 |
09 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
09 |
09 |
08 |
07 |
12 |
10 |
| 09 |
13 |
BAL |
06-05-00 |
AFC N |
10.08 |
12.38 |
2.30 |
3.17 |
13 |
06 |
15 |
06 |
13 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
09 |
12 |
| 10 |
10 |
PHI |
07-04-00 |
NFC E |
10.08 |
10.06 |
0.01 |
3.77 |
09 |
20 |
08 |
04 |
08 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
08 |
09 |
09 |
11 |
09 |
| 11 |
12 |
GBP |
07-04-00 |
NFC N |
10.46 |
11.94 |
1.48 |
2.07 |
11 |
15 |
10 |
07 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
08 |
08 |
| 12 |
14 |
DEN |
07-04-00 |
AFC W |
10.62 |
14.38 |
3.76 |
1.71 |
10 |
11 |
09 |
12 |
09 |
08 |
09 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
| 13 |
09 |
PIT |
06-05-00 |
AFC N |
11.62 |
9.13 |
2.49 |
1.50 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
08 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
| 14 |
11 |
NYG |
06-05-00 |
NFC E |
14.62 |
11.13 |
3.49 |
0.96 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
| 15 |
17 |
ATL |
06-05-00 |
NFC S |
15.77 |
16.69 |
0.92 |
2.13 |
14 |
22 |
14 |
18 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
| 16 |
19 |
TEN |
05-06-00 |
AFC S |
16.00 |
18.19 |
2.19 |
3.51 |
16 |
09 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
13 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
21 |
14 |
| 17 |
18 |
HOU |
05-06-00 |
AFC S |
17.77 |
17.13 |
0.64 |
2.42 |
18 |
17 |
19 |
11 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
20 |
| 18 |
20 |
SFO |
05-06-00 |
NFC W |
18.23 |
20.50 |
2.27 |
2.74 |
20 |
10 |
21 |
19 |
20 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
18 |
| 19 |
16 |
JAC |
06-05-00 |
AFC S |
18.54 |
16.19 |
2.35 |
1.76 |
17 |
19 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
22 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
17 |
| 20 |
15 |
MIA |
05-06-00 |
AFC E |
18.77 |
16.06 |
2.71 |
1.42 |
19 |
21 |
18 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
| 21 |
21 |
NYJ |
05-06-00 |
AFC E |
19.15 |
20.56 |
1.41 |
2.51 |
21 |
16 |
20 |
17 |
21 |
14 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
19 |
16 |
21 |
| 22 |
22 |
CAR |
04-07-00 |
NFC S |
22.69 |
21.13 |
1.57 |
1.70 |
22 |
18 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
25 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
24 |
| 23 |
28 |
BUF |
04-07-00 |
AFC E |
23.08 |
26.63 |
3.55 |
1.55 |
24 |
24 |
22 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
19 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
25 |
22 |
| 24 |
23 |
CHI |
04-07-00 |
NFC N |
24.15 |
22.69 |
1.47 |
1.91 |
23 |
26 |
25 |
26 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
28 |
24 |
24 |
26 |
22 |
23 |
| 25 |
26 |
SEA |
04-07-00 |
NFC W |
24.31 |
25.69 |
1.38 |
0.95 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
25 |
25 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
23 |
25 |
| 26 |
25 |
WAS |
03-08-00 |
NFC E |
25.92 |
25.38 |
0.55 |
1.80 |
26 |
28 |
27 |
21 |
26 |
28 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
26 |
24 |
26 |
26 |
| 27 |
24 |
KCC |
03-08-00 |
AFC W |
27.08 |
25.31 |
1.76 |
1.04 |
27 |
30 |
26 |
28 |
27 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
| 28 |
27 |
OAK |
03-08-00 |
AFC W |
27.62 |
26.50 |
1.12 |
1.33 |
28 |
25 |
28 |
30 |
28 |
27 |
28 |
25 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
| 29 |
30 |
TBB |
01-10-00 |
NFC S |
29.54 |
30.06 |
0.52 |
1.05 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
27 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
29 |
29 |
| 30 |
29 |
DET |
02-09-00 |
NFC N |
29.92 |
29.44 |
0.49 |
1.04 |
29 |
31 |
29 |
32 |
29 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
| 31 |
31 |
STL |
01-10-00 |
NFC W |
30.54 |
30.25 |
0.29 |
1.33 |
31 |
27 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
| 32 |
32 |
CLE |
01-10-00 |
AFC N |
31.54 |
31.88 |
0.34 |
0.97 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
29 |
32 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
Key
## – Rank this week; L# – Rank last week; AVG – this week’s average; LAV – last week’s average; Δ – Difference in averages; σ – Standard deviation
Sporting News maintains the lead with an overall accuracy of 69%. ProFootballTalk’s Rankings continues it’s lengthy streak as our overall least accurate source at 63%. Five souces tied for the highest accuracy in Week 11 games only at 81%: Whatifsports.com, ESPN’s SportsNation, ProFootballTalk Sporting News, and NFL.com’s Experts. Formulaic rankings Sagarin and Covers.com had the worst showings in Week 11 games only with 63% accuracy.
*** NOTE ***
The following are considered to be formulaic (computer, statistical, etc — i.e. no human component): WI (Whatifsports.com), FO (FootballOutsiders), SA (Jeff Sagarin’s Computer Ratings), and CV (Covers.com).
Please remember that for our purposes, our picks are determined strictly by the power rankings. If Team A is playing Team B and if Team A is ranked 13 and Team B is ranked 14, we presume that Team A is the pick over Team B, even if Team B is the home team. The more powerful team should always win. Period.
| Source Accuracy – Through 2009.11 |
| TOTAL |
NFLPR |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| Correct |
101 |
104 |
108 |
105 |
104 |
104 |
101 |
106 |
100 |
111 |
105 |
108 |
107 |
105 |
| Incorrect |
59 |
56 |
52 |
55 |
56 |
56 |
59 |
54 |
60 |
49 |
55 |
52 |
53 |
55 |
| Percent |
63% |
65% |
68% |
66% |
65% |
65% |
63% |
66% |
63% |
69% |
66% |
68% |
67% |
66% |
| CUMULATIVE |
NFLPR |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| Thru Wk 01 |
81% |
75% |
81% |
81% |
81% |
94% |
81% |
88% |
81% |
75% |
88% |
88% |
81% |
81% |
| Thru Wk 02 |
69% |
66% |
69% |
72% |
69% |
78% |
56% |
78% |
63% |
72% |
72% |
78% |
69% |
72% |
| Thru Wk 03 |
71% |
69% |
71% |
73% |
69% |
77% |
65% |
77% |
69% |
73% |
73% |
77% |
71% |
73% |
| Thru Wk 04 |
71% |
69% |
69% |
73% |
73% |
76% |
68% |
77% |
69% |
76% |
71% |
76% |
71% |
73% |
| Thru Wk 05 |
67% |
67% |
67% |
71% |
70% |
70% |
67% |
75% |
66% |
74% |
70% |
72% |
72% |
68% |
| Thru Wk 06 |
66% |
67% |
67% |
70% |
68% |
69% |
67% |
73% |
63% |
72% |
69% |
72% |
71% |
68% |
| Thru Wk 07 |
65% |
66% |
65% |
69% |
68% |
68% |
67% |
72% |
63% |
71% |
68% |
71% |
71% |
66% |
| Thru Wk 08 |
64% |
65% |
66% |
68% |
68% |
66% |
66% |
70% |
62% |
69% |
66% |
70% |
69% |
65% |
| Thru Wk 09 |
64% |
65% |
67% |
67% |
67% |
66% |
65% |
68% |
62% |
70% |
67% |
69% |
69% |
65% |
| Thru Wk 10 |
62% |
64% |
66% |
65% |
65% |
63% |
63% |
66% |
60% |
68% |
65% |
67% |
67% |
64% |
| Thru Wk 11 |
63% |
65% |
68% |
66% |
65% |
65% |
63% |
66% |
63% |
69% |
66% |
68% |
67% |
66% |
| WEEKLY |
NFLPR |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| Only Wk 01 |
81% |
75% |
81% |
81% |
81% |
94% |
81% |
88% |
81% |
75% |
88% |
88% |
81% |
81% |
| Only Wk 02 |
56% |
56% |
56% |
63% |
56% |
63% |
31% |
69% |
44% |
69% |
56% |
69% |
56% |
63% |
| Only Wk 03 |
75% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
69% |
75% |
81% |
75% |
81% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
| Only Wk 04 |
71% |
71% |
64% |
71% |
86% |
71% |
79% |
79% |
71% |
86% |
64% |
71% |
71% |
71% |
| Only Wk 05 |
50% |
57% |
57% |
64% |
57% |
43% |
64% |
64% |
50% |
64% |
64% |
57% |
79% |
50% |
| Only Wk 06 |
57% |
64% |
64% |
64% |
57% |
64% |
64% |
64% |
50% |
64% |
64% |
71% |
64% |
64% |
| Only Wk 07 |
62% |
62% |
54% |
62% |
69% |
62% |
69% |
62% |
62% |
62% |
62% |
62% |
69% |
54% |
| Only Wk 08 |
54% |
54% |
69% |
62% |
69% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
62% |
54% |
54% |
| Only Wk 09 |
62% |
69% |
85% |
62% |
54% |
62% |
62% |
54% |
62% |
77% |
69% |
62% |
69% |
69% |
| Only Wk 10 |
47% |
53% |
53% |
47% |
47% |
40% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
53% |
47% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Only Wk 11 |
75% |
75% |
81% |
69% |
69% |
81% |
63% |
69% |
81% |
81% |
75% |
69% |
63% |
81% |
Thanksgiving Edition
| Week 2009.12 |
| Picks |
Visitor |
Home |
Picks |
HFA |
Quality |
| 01 |
NEP |
NOS |
12 |
-2.19 |
4.72 |
| 10 |
PIT |
BAL |
03 |
3.25 |
14.00 |
| 12 |
NYG |
DEN |
01 |
3.25 |
16.00 |
| 07 |
CAR |
NYJ |
06 |
-0.56 |
21.41 |
| 11 |
JAC |
SFO |
02 |
4.31 |
22.66 |
| 12 |
ARI |
TEN |
01 |
10.94 |
23.66 |
| 13 |
IND |
HOU |
00 |
15.44 |
24.84 |
| 13 |
MIA |
BUF |
00 |
10.56 |
31.91 |
| 00 |
CHI |
MIN |
13 |
-19.38 |
32.38 |
| 12 |
SEA |
STL |
01 |
4.56 |
32.53 |
| 00 |
WAS |
PHI |
13 |
-15.31 |
33.03 |
| 00 |
KCC |
SDC |
13 |
-19.56 |
35.09 |
| 00 |
OAK |
DAL |
13 |
-17.75 |
35.38 |
| 00 |
TBB |
ATL |
13 |
-13.38 |
36.75 |
| 13 |
GBP |
DET |
00 |
17.50 |
38.19 |
| 00 |
CLE |
CIN |
13 |
-24.94 |
44.34 |
It should be no surprise that when the #1 team faces #4 it’s the most interesting matchup of the week. That’s what the Quality Quotient is designed for. So you know everyone will be watching when the Patriots and Saints face off Monday Night.
In fact, according to QQ, it’s the second most interesting matchup of the year, even over the Pats-Colts matchup two weeks ago. What was the most interesting of the season? Back in Week 6, the Giants were still undefeated and ranked #1 when they faced the #3 ranked Saints, giving the matchup a QQ under 3.
Closest Matchup (by PR) – CAR @NYJ – The Panthers and Jets may not be at the top of the rankings, but the Jets have only a 0.56 PR advantage.
Most Disputed Matchup (by Pick) – Since they’re so close in PR, the Panthers/Jets matchup is also the most disputed with 7 rankings picking the Panthers and 6 the Jets.
Biggest Favorite – The Bengals are ahead of the Browns by an average of nearly 25 spots in the Power Rankings this week, which also, yet again, puts this at the bottom of the QQ as well.
New Division Rankings from the Week 11 Power Rankings.
Just as the AFC North had reached a season high in power ranking average at 12.90 last week, the AFC South leapfrogs to the top overall spot with an average of 13.30. While the change from last week is only a scant 0.14 in ranking, the AFC North dropped to third overall with an average of 15.08, a drop of 2.18 (!). Going 0-fer in Week 11 probably didn’t help. The NFC East was the biggest beneficiary, rising from third to second overall with an average of 13.83, a change of 1.86.
Overall, it looks as if the oscillation between the two conferences has crested and will be bringing the two conferences back toward the middle.
| Division Breakdown |
|
Wk 00 |
Wk 01 |
Wk 02 |
Wk 03 |
Wk 04 |
Wk 05 |
Wk 06 |
Wk 07 |
Wk 08 |
Wk 09 |
Wk 10 |
Wk 11 |
| AFC S |
13.83 |
15.55 |
16.88 |
16.57 |
15.94 |
17.70 |
17.96 |
17.04 |
16.19 |
15.10 |
13.44 |
13.30 |
| NFC E |
10.10 |
9.82 |
11.61 |
12.38 |
12.98 |
12.52 |
15.27 |
15.17 |
14.73 |
14.83 |
15.69 |
13.83 |
| AFC N |
15.85 |
15.93 |
15.55 |
14.93 |
15.13 |
13.98 |
14.77 |
13.63 |
13.10 |
13.58 |
12.90 |
15.08 |
| AFC E |
14.88 |
14.79 |
14.14 |
14.54 |
14.56 |
16.55 |
15.98 |
15.02 |
15.08 |
15.13 |
16.92 |
16.72 |
| NFC N |
17.21 |
16.63 |
17.07 |
14.71 |
14.54 |
13.75 |
13.94 |
15.35 |
15.90 |
17.73 |
17.54 |
16.84 |
| NFC S |
15.69 |
17.30 |
16.48 |
17.75 |
17.62 |
16.05 |
15.65 |
17.29 |
16.75 |
15.75 |
16.37 |
17.33 |
| AFC W |
22.13 |
21.21 |
20.66 |
19.98 |
20.38 |
20.20 |
18.38 |
18.46 |
18.71 |
18.58 |
18.67 |
17.98 |
| NFC W |
22.27 |
20.73 |
19.55 |
21.14 |
20.85 |
21.25 |
20.04 |
20.04 |
21.54 |
21.31 |
20.46 |
20.92 |
| AFC AVG |
16.67 |
16.87 |
16.81 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
17.11 |
16.77 |
16.04 |
15.77 |
15.60 |
15.49 |
15.77 |
| NFC AVG |
16.32 |
16.12 |
16.18 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
15.89 |
16.23 |
16.96 |
17.23 |
17.40 |
17.51 |
17.23 |
Here they are, Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, some call them Week 12.
Up from the cellar
Two teams that have perennially been bottom-feeders in the last decade had some marquee wins this past week: the Raiders over the streaking Bengals and the Chiefs over the defending champs. And the Power Rankings are showing it too, with those being of the two highest rising teams in Week 11.
Legitimately Illegitimate
Two teams may have seen the bottom fall out of their hopes for the season for good. Everybody’s sleeper, the Texans, haven’t woken up enough to close a big game this year. And everyone was surprised the Broncos were one of the final unbeatens, but is anyone surprised to see them in the middle of the pack now? Both teams have seen a drop of over 4 points so far.
Week 2009.11
|
| ## |
L# |
Team |
Record |
Div |
AVG |
LAV |
Δ |
σ |
ES |
WI |
CB |
FO |
SN |
SA |
FS |
PF |
SP |
US |
SI |
CV |
NF |
| 01 |
01 |
NOS |
10-00-00 |
NFC S |
1.44 |
1.54 |
0.10 |
0.63 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
03 |
02 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
01 |
| 02 |
02 |
IND |
10-00-00 |
AFC S |
1.69 |
1.62 |
0.07 |
0.48 |
02 |
02 |
01 |
02 |
01 |
01 |
02 |
02 |
02 |
01 |
02 |
02 |
02 |
| 03 |
03 |
MIN |
09-01-00 |
NFC N |
3.31 |
3.54 |
0.23 |
0.60 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
05 |
03 |
04 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
03 |
04 |
03 |
| 04 |
05 |
NEP |
07-03-00 |
AFC E |
3.63 |
4.62 |
0.99 |
0.81 |
04 |
04 |
04 |
01 |
04 |
03 |
04 |
04 |
04 |
04 |
04 |
03 |
04 |
| 05 |
08 |
SDC |
07-03-00 |
AFC W |
5.75 |
9.00 |
3.25 |
2.02 |
06 |
05 |
07 |
13 |
05 |
05 |
06 |
05 |
05 |
05 |
05 |
05 |
05 |
| 06 |
04 |
CIN |
07-03-00 |
AFC N |
6.94 |
4.31 |
2.63 |
2.26 |
07 |
07 |
06 |
15 |
06 |
07 |
05 |
07 |
08 |
06 |
06 |
06 |
07 |
| 07 |
07 |
ARI |
07-03-00 |
NFC W |
7.25 |
8.62 |
1.37 |
1.39 |
05 |
09 |
08 |
08 |
07 |
08 |
11 |
06 |
06 |
07 |
07 |
07 |
06 |
| 08 |
09 |
DAL |
07-03-00 |
NFC E |
8.75 |
9.38 |
0.63 |
1.39 |
08 |
11 |
05 |
09 |
09 |
10 |
10 |
09 |
07 |
09 |
09 |
08 |
10 |
| 09 |
06 |
PIT |
06-04-00 |
AFC N |
9.13 |
6.15 |
2.97 |
2.06 |
09 |
06 |
10 |
10 |
08 |
12 |
07 |
08 |
10 |
08 |
08 |
13 |
08 |
| 10 |
12 |
PHI |
06-04-00 |
NFC E |
10.06 |
12.69 |
2.63 |
2.02 |
10 |
10 |
09 |
04 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
09 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
09 |
| 11 |
16 |
NYG |
06-04-00 |
NFC E |
11.13 |
15.54 |
4.41 |
1.45 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
09 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
09 |
12 |
| 12 |
13 |
GBP |
06-04-00 |
NFC N |
11.94 |
13.31 |
1.37 |
1.91 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
07 |
12 |
16 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
| 13 |
11 |
BAL |
05-05-00 |
AFC N |
12.38 |
10.08 |
2.30 |
3.59 |
15 |
13 |
17 |
06 |
13 |
06 |
08 |
10 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
10 |
17 |
| 14 |
10 |
DEN |
06-04-00 |
AFC W |
14.38 |
9.92 |
4.45 |
2.83 |
13 |
23 |
12 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
09 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| 15 |
18 |
MIA |
05-05-00 |
AFC E |
16.06 |
17.77 |
1.71 |
1.84 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
12 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
13 |
| 16 |
17 |
JAC |
06-04-00 |
AFC S |
16.19 |
17.54 |
1.35 |
2.51 |
14 |
16 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
20 |
17 |
18 |
13 |
13 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
| 17 |
15 |
ATL |
05-05-00 |
NFC S |
16.69 |
15.08 |
1.61 |
2.30 |
16 |
24 |
15 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
| 18 |
14 |
HOU |
05-05-00 |
AFC S |
17.13 |
13.38 |
3.74 |
1.63 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
16 |
| 19 |
22 |
TEN |
04-06-00 |
AFC S |
18.19 |
21.23 |
3.04 |
3.89 |
19 |
08 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
21 |
18 |
14 |
19 |
20 |
14 |
22 |
19 |
| 20 |
19 |
SFO |
04-06-00 |
NFC W |
20.50 |
19.46 |
1.04 |
1.86 |
20 |
15 |
23 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
| 21 |
20 |
NYJ |
04-06-00 |
AFC E |
20.56 |
19.62 |
0.95 |
1.97 |
22 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
23 |
17 |
21 |
24 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
| 22 |
21 |
CAR |
04-06-00 |
NFC S |
21.13 |
19.85 |
1.28 |
1.31 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
19 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
| 23 |
23 |
CHI |
04-06-00 |
NFC N |
22.69 |
22.38 |
0.30 |
1.01 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
21 |
23 |
| 24 |
27 |
KCC |
03-07-00 |
AFC W |
25.31 |
27.08 |
1.76 |
1.82 |
26 |
28 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
25 |
27 |
20 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
26 |
| 25 |
25 |
WAS |
03-07-00 |
NFC E |
25.38 |
25.15 |
0.22 |
1.54 |
24 |
27 |
27 |
22 |
27 |
28 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
| 26 |
24 |
SEA |
03-07-00 |
NFC W |
25.69 |
24.23 |
1.46 |
1.54 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
25 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
25 |
| 27 |
28 |
OAK |
03-07-00 |
AFC W |
26.50 |
28.69 |
2.19 |
2.61 |
28 |
20 |
28 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
28 |
21 |
26 |
28 |
25 |
28 |
27 |
| 28 |
26 |
BUF |
03-07-00 |
AFC E |
26.63 |
25.69 |
0.93 |
1.45 |
27 |
30 |
24 |
26 |
25 |
26 |
24 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
| 29 |
31 |
DET |
02-08-00 |
NFC N |
29.44 |
30.92 |
1.49 |
0.89 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
| 30 |
29 |
TBB |
01-09-00 |
NFC S |
30.06 |
29.00 |
1.06 |
0.85 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
28 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
30 |
| 31 |
30 |
STL |
01-09-00 |
NFC W |
30.25 |
29.54 |
0.71 |
1.57 |
31 |
25 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
| 32 |
32 |
CLE |
01-09-00 |
AFC N |
31.88 |
31.08 |
0.80 |
0.34 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
Key
## – Rank this week; L# – Rank last week; AVG – this week’s average; LAV – last week’s average; Δ – Difference in averages; σ – Standard deviation
