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October 2009
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Forgive Us

Source Accuracy — Through Week 7 Games

Fox Sports maintains the outright lead with an overall accuracy of 72%. ProFootballTalk’s Rankings are currently the least accurate overall at 63%. Covers, Football Outsiders, and Sagarin (all of which are formulaic/computer rankings) had the best accuracy in Week 7 only at 69%. Whatifsports and NFL.com’s Experts had the worst accuracy in [...]

Power Picks — Week 8

Week 2009.08

Picks
Visitor
Home
Picks
HFA
Quality

12
MIN
GBP
01
5.00
12.96

09
NYG
PHI
04
2.77
14.15

13
DEN
BAL
00
9.38
16.92

00
ATL
NOS
13
-10.85
17.65

01
MIA
NYJ
12
-3.85
20.46

13
HOU
BUF
00
5.38
24.85

00
SFO
IND
13
-16.46
26.62

00
SEA
DAL
13
-10.92
27.62

00
OAK
SDC
13
-10.92
32.69

00
CAR
ARI
13
-16.00
32.69

00
CLE
CHI
13
-9.15
32.81

02
STL
DET
11
-4.54
33.19

13
JAC
TEN
00
9.15
33.88

What do you know. Vikings @ Packers as the most interesting matchup of the week. Folks, please remember that everything we do here is strictly formulaic. Pardon me while I shed a tear like a proud papa. Brett Favre returns to Lambeau.

A look at all the rest:

Closest Matchup (by [...]

Division Rankings — Week 7

Division Breakdown

Wk 00
Wk 01
Wk 02
Wk 03
Wk 04
Wk 05
Wk 06
Wk 07

AFC N
15.85
15.93
15.55
14.93
15.13
13.98
14.77
13.63

AFC E
14.88
14.79
14.14
14.54
14.56
16.55
15.98
15.02

NFC E
10.10
9.82
11.61
12.38
12.98
12.52
15.27
15.17

NFC N
17.21
16.63
17.07
14.71
14.54
13.75
13.94
15.35

AFC S
13.83
15.55
16.88
16.57
15.94
17.70
17.96
17.04

NFC S
15.69
17.30
16.48
17.75
17.62
16.05
15.65
17.29

AFC W
22.13
21.21
20.66
19.98
20.38
20.20
18.38
18.46

NFC W
22.27
20.73
19.55
21.14
20.85
21.25
20.04
20.04

AFC AVG
16.67
16.87
16.81
16.50
16.50
17.11
16.77
16.04

NFC AVG
16.32
16.12
16.18
16.50
16.50
15.89
16.23
16.96

This is the newly updated breakdown of divisions. It is simply an average of the ranking averages for all the teams in the division. The divisions are ordered from strongest to weakest based on [...]

Power Rankings — Week 7

Below are all the updated post-week-7-games Power Rankings (some call them Week 8).

I’d like to take this moment to reiterate that the following sources are computer/statistically based: WI (WhatIfSports), FO (FootballOutsiders), SA (Jeff Sagarin’s Ratings), and potentially CV (Covers.com).

Here they are:

Week 2009.07

##
L#
Team
Record
Div
AVG
LAV
Δ
σ
WI
FO
SA
PF
US
CV

Source Accuracy — Through Week 6 Games

Fox Sports maintains the outright lead with an overall accuracy of 73%. ProFootballTalk’s Rankings are currently the least accurate overall at 63%. Sports Illustrated had the best accuracy in Week 6 only at 71%. ProFootballTalk had the worst accuracy in Week 6 only at 50%.

The following are considered to be formulaic (computer, [...]

Power Picks — Week 7

Week 2009.07

Picks
Visitor
Home
Picks
HFA
Quality

13
MIN
PIT
00
5.69
12.23

04
CHI
CIN
09
-1.15
12.81

01
ARI
NYG
12
-7.77
17.42

13
ATL
DAL
00
8.54
19.81

12
SFO
HOU
01
4.38
20.81

03
BUF
CAR
10
-0.46
24.15

13
NOS
MIA
00
16.31
25.77

13
SDC
KCC
00
8.31
30.38

13
NYJ
OAK
00
9.23
30.38

13
GBP
CLE
00
15.31
34.96

13
PHI
WAS
00
15.31
35.19

13
NEP
TBB
00
25.00
43.35

13
IND
STL
00
28.69
45.19

This week has 2 relatively close games (in terms of Quality Quotient) at the top: Vikings @ Steelers, and Bears @ Bengals. While the Vikings are unanimous favorites to win (based on the rankings of our sources), the Bears-Bengals matchup is not so lopsided. Both should be great games to watch. [...]

Division Rankings — Week 6

Division Breakdown

Wk 00
Wk 01
Wk 02
Wk 03
Wk 04
Wk 05
Wk 06

NFC N
17.21
16.63
17.07
14.71
14.54
13.75
13.94

AFC N
15.85
15.93
15.55
14.93
15.13
13.98
14.77

NFC E
10.10
9.82
11.61
12.38
12.98
12.52
15.27

NFC S
15.69
17.30
16.48
17.75
17.62
16.05
15.65

AFC E
14.88
14.79
14.14
14.54
14.56
16.55
15.98

AFC S
13.83
15.55
16.88
16.57
15.94
17.70
17.96

AFC W
22.13
21.21
20.66
19.98
20.38
20.20
18.38

NFC W
22.27
20.73
19.55
21.14
20.85
21.25
20.04

NFC AVG
16.32
16.12
16.18
16.50
16.50
15.89
16.23

AFC AVG
16.67
16.87
16.81
16.50
16.50
17.11
16.77

This is the newly updated breakdown of divisions. It is simply an average of the ranking averages for all the teams in the division. The divisions are ordered from strongest to weakest based on the [...]

Week 6 NFL Power Rankings

Park it here and watch as all the best Power Rankings from around the web trickle in for Week 6 (some rankings call it Week 7).

Week 2009.06

##
L#
Team
Record
Div
AVG
LAV
Δ
σ
WI
FO
SA
PF
US
CV

Source Accuracy — Through Week 5 Games

Fox Sports maintains the outright lead with an overall accuracy of 75%. ProFootballTalk’s Rankings are currently the least accurate overall at 66%. Covers.com had the best accuracy in Week 5 only at 79%. ESPN’s SportsNation (a reader poll) tied for the worst accuracy in Week 4 at 43%.

The following are considered to [...]

Power Picks for Week 6

Week 2009.06

Picks
Visitor
Home
Picks
HFA
Quality

08
NYG
NOS
05
0.57
2.93

01
CHI
ATL
12
-3.64
13.46

00
BAL
MIN
13
-7.07
14.54

08
ARI
SEA
05
0.00
19.00

13
DEN
SDC
00
10.71
21.29

00
HOU
CIN
13
-13.79
28.32

00
DET
GBP
13
-10.86
30.57

00
KCC
WAS
13
-4.57
31.57

12
CAR
TBB
01
6.00
32.79

00
TEN
NEP
13
-16.21
33.89

00
CLE
PIT
13
-16.00
34.64

00
BUF
NYJ
13
-15.64
34.82

00
STL
JAC
13
-10.43
36.93

13
PHI
OAK
00
23.21
41.96

This week’s top matchup is a (an?) historic one. The Giants-Saints game has a quality quotient of 2.93. It’s rare to have a game under 10, but under 3? To keep that in perspective you have to remember how we calculate QQ. It is the average of the two teams plus their difference in [...]